32% of the population agreeing with something may not seem like the knock-out result we want when the majority still take an opposing view, but it does put us well ahead of the so-called ‘tipping point’ observed by socio-cognitive scientists.

Think of your friends and family - the people you trust and listen to the most - and imagine ten of them sitting in front of you. Now ask them if they think plant-based diets are important for positive change. According to a new report out this week from the Vegan Society, three of those in your trusted circle would not only agree, but would also say that the UK government should be actively promoting meals without animal products and plant milk alternatives to dairy to tackle the climate crisis.

When you read that just 32 per cent of respondents of the Vegan Society survey took this position, you would be forgiven for thinking it isn’t that much. But it would only take each of those people to successfully pass their opinion on to two others for that result to change to closer to 100 per cent.

That is massive for those of us who engage in public outreach, and 32 per cent is actually far in excess of what socio-cognitive scientists have termed the ‘tipping point’ beyond which ideas spread exponentially throughout a population. According to the findings of scientists at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute:

“When the number of committed opinion holders is below 10 per cent, there is no visible progress in the spread of ideas. It would literally take the amount of time comparable to the age of the universe for this size group to reach the majority. Once that number grows above 10 per cent, the idea spreads like flame.”

Going back to your circle of ten, it would only take one person you trust to wake up to the many benefits of adopting a set of values that if fully realised would compel someone to go vegan. That is a bold statement, but given that the case for veganism is essentially four-pronged - health, the environment, pandemics and antibiotic resistance, and of course ethics - at least three of which most people care about, veganism is inevitable.

The science also tells us that it wouldn’t even be a case of convincing one person immediately, as long as someone else tells them the same thing during another interaction, therefore giving them the consensus to switch to what they previously had thought was an unpopular opinion.

This is particularly relevant for plant-based advocates and activists who do outreach - “in general, people do not like to have an unpopular opinion and are always seeking to try locally to come to consensus” - however:

If the listener held the same opinions as the speaker, it reinforced the listener’s belief. If the opinion was different, the listener considered it and moved on to talk to another person. If that person also held this new belief, the listener then adopted that belief.

We see this happening every day and it’s happening to all of us without even realising it, amplified by social media and the advent of the ‘influencer’. Although with social media algorithms being what they are, it’s very easy to find oneself in a bubble - as advocates utilising social media, we must always strive to not preach to the converted.

That all being said, the findings of the Vegan Society survey only indicate attitudes, not actual behaviours. It’s wonderful that people think there should be a shift towards what are essential vegan diets, but we don’t know if they are themselves plant-based. For this kind of data, we look to other sources such as Veganuary and Challenge22 who track numbers of people who adopt veganism for a period, but of course, we don’t know for sure how many stick with it beyond the month-long challenges and neither do we know how many people take the pledge but don’t sign-up officially.

Claiming wins based on data is full of caveats, but that’s not to say we should ignore what the information does tell us about trends and attitudes. Veganuary for example has had successive years of growth in sign-ups since it first started - not exponential growth as yet, but still significant and with no signs of slowing.

The Vegan Society survey is more about gradual, large-scale shifts in attitude, rather than individual change, and it is the bigger picture that will influence policy, laws and economic factors. For example, the survey gauged support for a number of notions related to the climate crisis, and with COP26 coming up in November to be hosted in Scotland, this data is more important than ever:

• When asked what government officials should do about food and farming to address the climate crisis, 32%, of the 6,200 surveyed by The Vegan Society, backed calls to promote plant-based diets. This mirrors results from the recently published global United Nations Development Programme survey on climate change.

• When it comes to which specific policy recommendations to use to promote plant-based diets, of the 2,000 respondents who said they supported this approach, 61% said they’d back public awareness campaigns on the health and environmental benefits, and 60% believe there should be at least one plant-based, healthy meal on every public sector menu.

• Meanwhile, 55% felt there should be financial incentives and support for more UK grown, high protein crops, such as beans, nuts and seeds, while 53% want to see packages of support for farmers to transition out of animal farming

Ending things on a comment from the Vegan Society, Louisianna Waring, Insight and Commercial Policy Officer, said: 

“We believe this data is hugely positive for the vegan movement. It is fantastic to see that one in three people in the UK are listening to the science on the impact of dietary choices.”

”Many of the climate solutions on offer can only be achieved if implemented together and promoting plant-based diets is one solution that unlocks several others including reduced deforestation and less water and land use.”

It seems as if public opinion is indeed moving towards plant-based, and while the questions asked were mostly within the environmental context with some touching on health and nutrition, it is clear that people see animal-free meals as beneficial. So for those who need consensus and the validation of our peers, and let’s face it, that is most of us, this shift in attitudes removes social barriers - often hostile - to what many once considered one of the most unpopular opinions of all: veganism is the only way.

Andrew Gough is Media and Investigations Manager at Surge.

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